Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise

Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise

Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance.

The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly correlated environments. Here, we found that, in contrast to moderate auto-correlation, the extinction risk was highly dependent on the process of nois...

How colored environmental noise affects population extinction.

Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored (that is, correlated) Gaussian noise. A path integral formulation yields a transparent way of evaluating the MTE and finding the optimal realization of the environmental noi...

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise.

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird populatio...

Interim Report IR - 02 - 56 Influence of Coloured Noise on the Extinction Risk in Structured Population Models

Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions ex pressed herein do not necessarily represent those o f the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or ot her organizations supporting the work. Abstract We use simple models too compare extinctionn riskk among basic life history types when environmental nois...